Every year in Tucson people complain about the current monsoon—not like the ones they remember. That's an accurate perception; it isn't just a matter of recalling only the spectacular days. Each monsoon has a different variety. Some years feature squall lines that roll across the metro area between 3 and 5 pm, others chaotic distributions of evening storms, others organized nocturnal systems, others breaks when the monsoon completely shuts down—each of these more frequently in some years and less in others. So judging this year is not like the others
is usually justified.
It's generally recognized and understood that during the shoulder seasons of the monsoon, early July and the weeks around Labor Day, rain totals can be erratic. Erratic is even better understood for the off-seasons, late June and mid-late September. Intrusions of tropical moisture if they happen in the off-seasons are appreciated; if not, oh well. But usually over a four week period near the middle of the monsoon, the last half of July and the first half of August, one way or another the idiosyncrasies of that year's monsoon generate a rain total that meets expectations. That did not happen this year. (My house is 12 miles north of the Tucson Airport.)
| 2018 Period | # days | My house, inches | Airport, inches |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 15 and 16 | 2 | 1.76 | 0.91 |
| July 5 to 15 | 11 | 0.98 | 1.77 |
| Jul 16 to Aug 13 | 29 | 1.01 | 1.15 |
| Aug 14 to Aug 25 | 12 | 1.26 | 2.05 |
Until two weeks ago this year the usual quips about the non-soon had given way to bitter comebacks, What monsoon?!
, or as someone on my community's listserve wrote sarcastically on August 11, Our trees/shrubs are just loving it!! G RRRR!
Since the current official definition of the monsoon includes June 15, as well as all of September, and since September is expected to be above normal, it's likely that the official rain total for this year's monsoon will look reasonable. But no matter how much rain arrives in September, it won't wash away the reality of a missing (less than 0.04 inch per day) middle of the monsoon this year.
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