The original title for this post was going to be Yet Another Complaint About The NWS
. But I discovered something today that I like. So I'll start with that. The following is an excerpt from the aviation portion of today's Charleston, West Virginia, Area Forecast Discussion.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: POSITION AND TIMING OF IFR SNOW AREAS COULD
SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TO AFFECT OTHER AREAS TONIGHT.
It's possible that this is an initiative in other parts of the NWS. But it's the first I've seen it, i.e. an explicit communication of the uncertainty in a short term forecast. It is a recognition that confidence does not always converge to certainty as the forecast time shortens. Models usually converge, but realistic scenarios may remain outside the model envelope. I hope there will continue to be efforts to better communicate uncertainty.
Now for my complaint. It is an old peeve, and it is about topography as much as meteorology. But it is mostly about a lack of common-sense communication skills. The following is the header for one of the zones in today's forecast from the Pittsburgh National Weather Service.
PAZ076-282030-
FAYETTE RIDGES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...OHIOPYLE...
MARKLEYSBURG
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
EDT SATURDAY...
(it goes on)
Nobody in Fayette County, except perhaps the radio announcer reading the forecast, refers to that part of the county as The Ridges
. It is simply The Mountains
, or perhaps The Mountain Area
. The mountain area is comprised of prominent ridges (the two closest to Pittsburgh being Chestnut Ridge and Laurel Ridge) which enclose relatively lower but still rugged terrain. The cities
are in that in-between area.
And here is an excerpt from the Pittsburgh AFD
... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE RIDGES, WITH
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE RIDGE-TOPS POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOWLANDS JUST WEST OF THE RIDGES...
... just west of Chestnut Ridge.
It's that easy to fix, once you replace Fayette Ridges
with Fayette Mountains
. Here is my dictionary's definition of ridge: a long narrow hilltop. The ridge-tops
are the ridges! For comparison and contrast, here is the topographical wording from an adjacent area, my new favorite
the Charleston AFD.
...BASED ON NAM12/WWD/AND LOCAL DENDRITE ZONE AND OMEGA TOOL...HEAVY
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...RANGING FROM
4-8 INCHES OVER HIGHEST TERRAIN...TO 1-4 INCHES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
