About an hour ago I took a walk around the block, and felt the first few drops of this year's monsoon. It's still 97F at my house, which is only 7 degrees off the afternoon high. Whatever the low-level dewpoints have been, it doesn't matter. The atmosphere is unstable enough, although the very light showers have now dissipated as fast as they flared up over an hour ago.
In recent years the monsoon onsets have often come with odd, freakish upper-air patterns. This year is different. It is straightforward. The subtropical ridge is setting up to the north, putting us in southeast flow.
Last week was equally straightforward. Last Thursday afternoon I was briefly in moderate rain while driving along Broadway near Alvernon. But then we were still in the westerlies--not the monsoon.
You don't need an artificial index to define when the monsoon starts this year. It's here, today.
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